UK Politics Omnishambles: Page 73 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

UK Politics Omnishambles

goon

As Mirth says the Lib Dems have shit the bed. Their 'cancel Brexit' policy along with the strategy to focus their attacks on Labour rather than the Tories has backfired.

Qwiss

KingslandBarge wrote:
Thats the catch. Seems Labor has narrowed lead in the last two weeks by picking up Lib Dem voter share much more than ambivalent conservatives. Really need the public to hear from Johnson and his empty promises and vacuous statements.

I would prefer a stronger Lib Dem presence in parliament. Its healthier for politics in theory, and a stronger check on the two parties.

Can they get people who are still Tory? Would they not have a better shot even with Brexit party voters?

Mirth

Re: polling. There's also the shy Tory syndrome to take into account.

Burnwinter

Polls have definitely narrowed by a couple of points. If that reflects reality and happens again between now and election day, you start to get into hung Parliament territory.

KingslandBarge

Qwiss! wrote:
KingslandBarge wrote:
Thats the catch. Seems Labor has narrowed lead in the last two weeks by picking up Lib Dem voter share much more than ambivalent conservatives. Really need the public to hear from Johnson and his empty promises and vacuous statements.

I would prefer a stronger Lib Dem presence in parliament. Its healthier for politics in theory, and a stronger check on the two parties.

Can they get people who are still Tory? Would they not have a better shot even with Brexit party voters?

Fair, Labor does have the benefit (depending on how one sees it) of being neutral on Brexit. There is a working class demographic that Labor could potentially appeal to from that party, especially by hitting key notes on public funding redistribution and healthcare protection. I think it was obviously Farage's 101 nationalist rhetoric that grabbed such a cohort, but I wonder if they see how much of a self-serving neoliberal he seems as well.

goon

Latest poll has the Tory lead cut to 6%. With a bit more progress we can still get a hung Parliament!

Mirth

I thought the gap was widening today?

goon

I think there was one published yesterday that gave the Tories a 14 point lead but that seems to be an anomaly.

Qwiss

Boris panicking, getting more racist by the day trying to win back those Brexit Party voters.

Burnwinter

goon wrote:
Latest poll has the Tory lead cut to 6%. With a bit more progress we can still get a hung Parliament!

Yep this was the ICM poll. Feel like, even with postals, Labour's ground game means the end result is more like these favourable polls on the day. Be interested to hear from you fellas about whether that's how it feels in the UK. Still not enough, but getting closer. Another incident like the botched hospital interview for Johnson might be needed. He's hopeless and deeply unlikable.

jones

Last time around the difference between the latest aggregated poll two weeks out and actual votes was 6% for Labour

Virtually the entire media of the UK incl the BBC, the City, US and Israeli lobby groups, that prick rabbi who's friends with Johnson and now the archbishop of Canterbury have all publicly endorsed Boris and/or called to keep Corbyn out of office. If he still manages to win this election he should be knighted immediately, would be a bigger upset than Leicester 2016 imo.

Burnwinter

I think the trajectory of the campaign undermines anti-politics as a concept. When they're allowed to think about it, people start to want their common goods protected and restored in pursuit of a better society—because it's politically rational.

Having watched the conduct of the BBC and, in fact, nearly the entirety of the mainstream media including the ostensibly left-liberal outlets like The Guardian and The Observer over the campaign, I think Labour would be ahead in the polls if coverage were balanced. Imagine if Johnson with his pretty extreme record of public racist speech had encountered anything like the stories of Labour antisemitism that have dogged Corbyn's leadership.

The other factor is the Lib Dems. Not much platform to speak of beyond utterly stupid ideas (loans to rent?!), balancing the books, and a Remain policy you can't trust due to their stated ambition to form a coalition with the hard Brexit Tories over Labour, despite Labour's policy on a second referendum. And yet they're still being backed by faked up tactical voting guides and refusing to stand down in seats where they have no chance.

goon

In what way have the BBC publicly backed Boris?

Also the polls in 2017 narrowed heavily in the last week.

Mirth

The media aren't great for Corbyn but they were pretty aggressive to Ed Miliband and Gordon Brown as well.

I honestly think it's hugely optimistic to suggest that Labour would be ahead in the polls if the coverage was better, if you think that then you haven't been paying attention. Granted the incumbent government gets an easier ride by the mainstream media but you only have to look at the success of the SNP and UKIP and even Labour in 2017 to know that the media isn't a barrier to entry. Labour are suffering from reconciling their Scottish voters with their voters in rural England and their urban youth voters more than anything else. It's no surprise that when they attack the Tories with subjects the public can rally around - like the US trade deal, austerity or the NHS, they go and do well in the next few polls.

Burnwinter

Agree the polls will narrow further but I predict Labour won't crack 40, I'd expect maybe 37 or 38 based on the figures currently emerging. Partly because Boris doesn't seem as unsteady in his campaign as May did, she was truly disastrous.

goon wrote:
In what way have the BBC publicly backed Boris?

I see most of it on Twitter, so I do get my own selective view of reality. They've dithered around and allowed him to dodge his interview with Neil, and Laura Kuenssberg has consistently avoided opportunities to critique him, indulging in truly bizarre feats of editorial balance. There was a great false equivalence yesterday where she was like "both leaders have a brass neck, Johnson refusing to admit to negotiations with US interests regarding the future of the NHS, and Corbyn dodging the question of whether he watches the Queen's Speech on Christmas Day" 😆

When the botched hospital interview emerged last night, the BBC passed on a false Conservative briefing about a Labour assault without fact-checking it, and that's not the first editorial mistake they've made favouring the Conservatives during the campaign.

goon

Totally. The only reason the Tories are doing well is because they now have a monopoly on the leave vote. The Mail and Sun are just noise at this point.

Burnwinter

Mirth wrote:
I honestly think it's hugely optimistic to suggest that Labour would be ahead in the polls if the coverage was better, if you think that then you haven't been paying attention. Granted the incumbent government gets an easier ride by the mainstream media but you only have to look at the success of the SNP and UKIP and even Labour in 2017 to know that the media isn't a barrier to entry.

The theory does rely on the media's treatment of Labour differing from its treatment of UKIP and the SNP (not to mention the Conservatives themselves).

goon

Burnwinter wrote:
Agree the polls will narrow further but I predict Labour won't crack 40, I'd expect maybe 37 or 38 based on the figures currently emerging. Partly because Boris doesn't seem as unsteady in his campaign as May did, she was truly disastrous.

goon wrote:
In what way have the BBC publicly backed Boris?

I see most of it on Twitter, so I do get my own selective view of reality. They've dithered around and allowed him to dodge his interview with Neil, and Laura Kuenssberg has consistently avoided opportunities to critique him, indulging in truly bizarre feats of editorial balance. There was a great false equivalence yesterday where she was like "both leaders have a brass neck, Johnson refusing to admit to negotiations with US interests regarding the future of the NHS, and Corbyn dodging the question of whether he watches the Queen's Speech on Christmas Day" 😆

When the botched hospital interview emerged last night, the BBC passed on a false Conservative briefing about a Labour assault without fact-checking it, and that's not the first editorial mistake they've made favouring the Conservatives during the campaign.

Their coverage has been a little skewed and their editorial mistakes seem to always fall in the Tories favour, but I don’t think that amounts to public backing.

Mirth

If you really want an example of media bias then you need to see what the SNP had to contend with. I mean it wasn't even bias, just the whole UK, EU and International media system almost barely acknowledging them - to an extent it was understandable but the SNP were basically run over by deeper and more influential pockets even though they actually had some areas that they deserved to be scrutinised over.

Mirth

goon wrote:
Burnwinter wrote:
Agree the polls will narrow further but I predict Labour won't crack 40, I'd expect maybe 37 or 38 based on the figures currently emerging. Partly because Boris doesn't seem as unsteady in his campaign as May did, she was truly disastrous.

I see most of it on Twitter, so I do get my own selective view of reality. They've dithered around and allowed him to dodge his interview with Neil, and Laura Kuenssberg has consistently avoided opportunities to critique him, indulging in truly bizarre feats of editorial balance. There was a great false equivalence yesterday where she was like "both leaders have a brass neck, Johnson refusing to admit to negotiations with US interests regarding the future of the NHS, and Corbyn dodging the question of whether he watches the Queen's Speech on Christmas Day" 😆

When the botched hospital interview emerged last night, the BBC passed on a false Conservative briefing about a Labour assault without fact-checking it, and that's not the first editorial mistake they've made favouring the Conservatives during the campaign.

Their coverage has been a little skewed and their editorial mistakes seem to always fall in the Tories favour, but I don’t think that amounts to public backing.

I mean, it's not great but nothing we haven't seen before. Blair and Campbell wrote the manual on how to deal with the media, this an extension of that trend. The question is whether it would swing opinions by 20%+ and personally I would say that's optimistic

There's just not enough money or time in the election campaign to target bomb marginal consistencies like they would in the US who would have 18 months of this shit leading up to election day.

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