UK Politics Omnishambles: Page 33 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

UK Politics Omnishambles

Qwiss

I reckon this is just a ploy to tide them over until the next election, when either way they probably wont have to satisfy the DUP.

Mirth

For what it's worth, 26 countries have now expelled Russian envoys.

My favourite story is from New Zealand though, they wanted to join in but couldn't find any spies: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/27/new-zealand-expel-russian-spies-cant-find-any 😆

Tony Montana

On a related note.

If you know who the spies are doesn't that defeat the point?

Daz

They went to the Russian embassy and asked politely for any spies to please put their hands up but none did. Job done.

Burnwinter

Tony Montana wrote:
If you know who the spies are doesn't that defeat the point?

That's just where these guys get started.

jones

Mirth wrote:

Worth noting that France have also accepted the evidence despite being on the fence initially.

https://www.kommersant.ru/docs/2018/UK_Briefing.pdf

This is the handout which won over and convinced the governments of the free world that Russia was behind this 😆 at a time where Metro Police said this was one of the most complex cases they've ever investigated and which would take months if not years to conclude, and shortly after they've announced that the largest amount of the toxin was actually found at Skripal's home - which he left almost four hours before him and his daughter collapsed in a park

Good thing we already know who the culprit is, at least one thing that's clear in this case 😆

Coombs

Who? Hillary Clinton?

Burnwinter

Is that briefing slide deck real? It's fairly pathetic.

Tam

jones wrote:
Mirth wrote:

Worth noting that France have also accepted the evidence despite being on the fence initially.

https://www.kommersant.ru/docs/2018/UK_Briefing.pdf

This is the handout which won over and convinced the governments of the free world that Russia was behind this 😆 at a time where Metro Police said this was one of the most complex cases they've ever investigated and which would take months if not years to conclude, and shortly after they've announced that the largest amount of the toxin was actually found at Skripal's home - which he left almost four hours before him and his daughter collapsed in a park

Good thing we already know who the culprit is, at least one thing that's clear in this case 😆

It almost certainly isn't. It would be naive to think the intelligence relating to the case hasn't been shared behind the scenes and not released to the public.

Klaus

Exactly. Of course those slides aren't the evidence that was shared.

jones

Burnwinter wrote:
Is that briefing slide deck real? It's fairly pathetic.

Remember that IT Security piece the NSA released to prove Russia was behind the DNC leaks? It consisted of a bunch of lines of gibberish code a short explanation of what APT28 are up to and 20 pages best practices on how to prevent malware on your computer but was presented to the media as the irrefutable smoking gun of Putin's involvement with Trump. In this current climate it doesn't matter what you claim about Russia - it'll always stick

jones

Klaus wrote:
Exactly. Of course those slides aren't the evidence that was shared.

And why exactly would they hold back evidence from the public? Is it really naive to think there is no actual intelligence to be circulated when Metro Police and Scotland Yard say the case is wide open? Or isn't it more naive to trust the same Downing Street office that's responsible for the Microsoft dossier in 2003 and granted Curveball "beyond doubt" authenticity status?

Burnwinter

We know absolutely nothing about the evidence, if any, that has been shared. Nothing definitive has been published or leaked. It's naive to assume it exists, it's naive to assume it doesn't.

What makes sense to me is that the collective action to expel diplomats as undeclared intel agents is based on a broader agenda than the Skripal attack.

Klaus

I don't buy into russphobic narratives, and I like to think I have a modicum of understanding for the politics of that country through close friends who live there whom I visit at least a few times a year.

Conversely though, it strikes me as complete crackpot nonsense to try and claim that Russia weren't behind this. We know who was targeted, we know the kind of nerve agent that was used, we know who manufactures it. We know it's not the first time a former Russian operative gets assassinated on British soil through cold war methods. We know that when Russia were asked to explain how a nerve agent they have in their possession was released in England first claimed that they had never manufactured or researched it in the first place, which is a ridiculous and well-established lie.

The fact that the US and their big western allies are currently a much worse and more damaging force on the world stage of politics does not make Russia any less problematic as a country, nor does it make their agenda of testing the limits for what the rest of the world will tolerate any less obvious. It seems extraordinarily difficult for some people to hold two thoughts in their head at the same time.

jones

I respectfully disagree Burns, there is no reason to assume there is any intelligence regarding what happened, certainly not the kind of intel that is suggested by the parties involved. The investigating police (whose official communication/timing has been dubious too) have basically admitted that they can't know anything at this point when they found Novichok residue in Skripal's flat - which he left long before he collapsed

Unless you're insinuating that secret services are keeping the police in the dark there is nothing to suggest the government would know more about this than them - and while this has certainly happened in the past it's pretty unrealistic they would keep their own executive branch out of the loop while informing other governments about sensitive information like this

Finally the briefing document itself - if you actually had reasonably reliable evidence why would you dilute your plausibility by including other laughable accusation points such as Sakashvili's aggression in 2008? Why mention the ultimatum that you posed to Russia but conveniently forget that the UK has not initiated the formal process with the OPCW to this point denying them a sample of the toxin? All of this smells like horseshit

Bold Tone

You may be right but the intelligence community does not operate with due process.
In the absence of evidence, motive is the dominant factor so Russia is the obvious guilty party.
Horseshit or not, the west have cleared out a large number of diplomats who could possibly be russian "intelligence" agents.
They've more than likely calculated that reciprocal action by Russia represents a win as the russian agents have been more effective or our agents are better embedded than theirs.

Burnwinter

Klaus wrote:
Conversely though, it strikes me as complete crackpot nonsense to try and claim that Russia weren't behind this. We know who was targeted, we know the kind of nerve agent that was used, we know who manufactures it. We know it's not the first time a former Russian operative gets assassinated on British soil through cold war methods. We know that when Russia were asked to explain how a nerve agent they have in their possession was released in England first claimed that they had never manufactured or researched it in the first place, which is a ridiculous and well-established lie.

The amount of information we have about the attack is consistent with both Russia having arranged it, and with a western attempt to put Russia in the frame by targeting a former Russian agent with an allegedly Russian method.

The evidence of Russian culpability that's supposedly been distributed among European and Five Eyes nations could be being withheld from the public because it is convincing, but sensitive (for instance it might endanger an embedded spy), or because it is unconvincing or nonexistent.

With the World Cup upcoming in Russia, and the recent history of Russia being accused of meddling in elections in both the US and UK, there's definitely a premise for the creation of an embarrassing international incident as Russia moves into the global public eye. But also, if Skripal was somehow about to be reactivated, or divulge previously undisclosed information that would have been embarrassing, that's a motive for Russia. A third possibility is that someone in Russia wants to damage Putin's regime or embarrass him.

All these sorts of theories went around after Litvinenko's assassination as well.

Skripal is apparently no longer in critical condition and it will be interesting to hear what he says, or is allowed to say, if anything.

jones wrote:
I respectfully disagree Burns, there is no reason to assume there is any intelligence regarding what happened, certainly not the kind of intel that is suggested by the parties involved. The investigating police (whose official communication/timing has been dubious too) have basically admitted that they can't know anything at this point when they found Novichok residue in Skripal's flat - which he left long before he collapsed

Unless you're insinuating that secret services are keeping the police in the dark there is nothing to suggest the government would know more about this than them - and while this has certainly happened in the past it's pretty unrealistic they would keep their own executive branch out of the loop while informing other governments about sensitive information like this

The narrative of "evidence being shared" is a bit suspect, I agree. Nothing is totally conclusive. This op-ed in the Guardian (by an intel-adjacent US security consultant now based in New Zealand) was bizarre:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/28/new-zealands-claim-it-has-no-russian-spies-is-perplexing-why-is-it-isolating-itself

jones

Burnwinter wrote:
The amount of information we have about the attack is consistent with both Russia having arranged it, and with a western attempt to put Russia in the frame by targeting a former Russian agent with an allegedly Russian method.

You're missing a couple more scenarios here, or rather you're probably conflating a couple - Russia is not a monolithic Putin-faced bloc, it could well have been someone from Russia (even someone from the government) but someone with interests diametrically opposed or at least not aligned to those of Putin.

We all know how the intelligence services in the US have shown to have different views to each other or even to the White House but for some reason (public media and Hollywood being some of them) we cannot seem to grasp the idea that there are several power streams within Russia, trying to sway or topple Putin. Some like the Chechens just want to see Putin burn, others have no qualms to indirectly or directly cooperate with the West in achieving their goals - the US-funded intelligentsia such as Kasparov who'd love nothing more than a return of the early 90s being a prime example of this faction. There's also little to discount the possibility of this being the work of hardliner politicians or agents who would like to escalate the tensions between Russia and the West - I remember you reading the Daesh piece about the 'extinction of the grayzone' so you're most likely familiar with this concept.

. But also, if Skripal was somehow about to be reactivated, or divulge previously undisclosed information that would have been embarrassing, that's a motive for Russia.

This cannot be completely discounted but is very unlikely in my opinion. Skripal did time already in a Russian prison and was released in a spy swap, one thing that's completely omitted from public discourse - an internationally valid, for spies even sacred system where the only thing keeping your agents from lifelong solitary confinement or the gas chamber is the trust that swapping spies remains sacrosanct. Why would Russia ruin that - possibly forever - to get back at one former spy? Especially one who most likely has no links in the country with little reactivation value.

A lot more likely cause for the attempted murder are his much more recent links to private intelligence company Orbis who - coincidence - are based near Salisbury. Even bigger coincidence is that the bloke who recruited him for Orbis, ex-MI6 Pablo Miller, lives in Salisbury too. I'm not an investigator but I'm pretty sure usually you start checking leads from 2017-18 before looking into what the victim did about a decade ago.

Burnwinter

You're missing a couple more scenarios here, or rather you're probably conflating a couple - Russia is not a monolithic Putin-faced bloc, it could well have been someone from Russia (even someone from the government) but someone with interests diametrically opposed or at least not aligned to those of Putin.

I did mention the possibility of a Russian group that wanted to undermine or embarrass Putin previously.

Coming all the way back around again, the backdrop for me is that the stakes of escalating sabre-rattling between Russia and the US, Europe and their allies are much greater than the life of Sergei Skripal, no offence to him. I tend to assume that the attack was ulterior and that the responses from all sides are in keeping with their broader agendas they would have pursued anyway. The overall story is one in which everyone is doing a lot of work to create the plausible rationale, in the public eye, for future conflict. I hope it doesn't come to that.

jones

I agree with the gist of your post but the efforts to escalate this new Cold War are extremely skewed in my opinion. I don't think it's enough to spread the blame evenly in this case.

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