UK Politics Omnishambles: Page 26 - The Arsenal discussion community: One More in the Tolly

UK Politics Omnishambles

Burnwinter

Mirth wrote:
He's right that his government will lead to a drop in investment in the UK? I'm all for challenging the established order but that's not a very reassuring way to go about it.

Meanwhile the party that's in government has implemented years of absurd procyclical cuts and triggered Brexit through its absurd chauvinism and brinkmanship … a safe pair of hands indeed.

Mirth

What kind of logical fallacy is that? Questioning Corbyn doesn't make you pro-Tory.

goon

‘Declaring war’ on banks or anything for that matter is stupid. The key is to reign in the abusers of the economy in without turning them into an outspoken enemy.

Labours number one priority should be to fix the economy, the wage growth issue etc. Do that and all the other reforms you might want to sneak through become a lot easier.

Coombs

Reign in? They need to be overthrown more than anything. They've created the fallacy that the "economy" needs them. It doesn't.

Burnwinter

Mirth wrote:
What kind of logical fallacy is that? Questioning Corbyn doesn't make you pro-Tory.

In a sense you're right, but you're looking at a Labour or Conservative government next time around, so in a sense, you're not.

Mirth

Well, at the moment, most polls point towards another hung parliament. I suggested that a more finely tuned message would help Labour avoid this - so how am I wrong?

Burnwinter

Surely you were objecting to Corbyn's plans rather than his messaging? That's what I took from your post anyway.

Either way, the latest polls show Labour's position strengthening for now. Which is not surprising given what they're up against.

Mirth

I object to both. It's neither a coherent strategy nor will it bring enough voters over to their side. At this point Corbyn is preaching to the choir.

Labour are doing better in the polls (although fluctuated around the point they reached since the election) but the forecast is still a hung parliament

Burnwinter

It's neither a coherent strategy nor will it bring enough voters over to their side.

You sound like one of the Blairites complaining of Corbyn's unelectability even though he nearly toppled May at the last general election and has created an unprecedented turnaround in Labour support after the disastrous tenure of Ed Miliband.

Actual poll movements seem to show that sticking to a strong program for change is paying electoral dividends, with somewhere between +10 to +15 for Labour in the polls over the last year alone.

A drift back towards conciliatory centrist rhetoric at this point seems very much ill-advised.

I'm not a huge fan of Corbyn's, nor do I honestly believe any elected UK Prime Minister will be allowed to implement the changes the country needs, but I think you're tactically off the mark in this case.

Mirth

So I'm a Tory or a Blairite. You are the worst kind of Guardian reader, BW!

Burnwinter wrote:
Actual poll movements seem to show that sticking to a strong program for change is paying electoral dividends, with somewhere between +10 to +15 for Labour in the polls over the last year alone.

A drift back towards conciliatory centrist rhetoric at this point seems very much ill-advised.

Since the last election there's not been anywhere near the double figure lead you claim, it's a close run thing which - in the context of where things were a year ago is impressive but given the current state of affairs, it's not. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2017

Burnwinter

+10 to +15 relative to the previous poll position with Labour behind Mirth.

A swing which has been achieved without Corbyn conceding much ground to the centre.

As far as I know you're neither a Tory nor a Blairite but a Liberal Democrat?

goon

Corbyn's recovery was down to the Tory's own suicidal campaign and arrogance, combined with a clever grass roots campaign and enough gimmicks in the manifesto to attract the youth vote.

As far as his policies go, he's done absolutely nothing to reassure a huge percentage of the middle class, many who would happily vote Labour given how weak the current government is if they had any confidence in the policies on offer. It doesn't even require him conceding much ground, just a small change in tone would do it. He's finally got it with Europe, it took him an eternity though.

Labour should be going for a landslide victory, instead they're looking at a minority government at best.

Mirth

Burnwinter wrote:
+10 to +15 relative to the previous poll position with Labour behind Mirth.

A swing which has been achieved without Corbyn conceding much ground to the centre.

As far as I know you're neither a Tory nor a Blairite but a Liberal Democrat?

Along with the points goon mentioned, the swing which was achieved largely through Labour being perceived as relatively soft on Brexit which is a policy favoured by centrists.

Burnwinter

He's at 45 in the polls vs 38 to the Tories currently.

There's a reality gap between what the electorate is thinking and what analysts and pundits are thinking, as the snap election showed. The sorts of things being referred to as "gimmicks to attract the youth vote" are the policies many people seriously want. Pundits however mistakenly persist in believing an Angela Eagle or Owen Smith or David Miliband is needed, when the opposite is true.

Corbyn has to stick to his social democratic agenda to shore up the election-winning base he has built. The impending fallout from Brexit as the negotiations continue is going to strengthen his hand further.

Burnwinter

Mirth wrote:
Along with the points goon mentioned, the swing which was achieved largely through Labour being perceived as relatively soft on Brexit which is a policy favoured by centrists.

That's not clearly true at all—for instance as UKIP was routed at the snap election, a high proportion of its voters switched rails to Corbyn, precisely because he's perceived as a supporter of Brexit, unlike those in the centre ground of Labour.

Mirth

Nope, that wouldn't explain the support Corbyn has amongst younger voters (biggest increase in youth turnout in decades) or those from major metropolitan regions (Kensington and Chelsea voted Labour ffs!). UKIP voters from traditionally working class backgrounds would sooner speak Polish than vote Tory.

I think that's what goon means, he's already been suitably vague about Europe so much so that people have projected onto him what they want to see.

Mirth

Burnwinter wrote:
He's at 45 in the polls vs 38 to the Tories currently.

*In a poll.

Anyway, given the latest development around the Irish border there could well be another election next year so we'll soon find out.

goon

Burnwinter wrote:
Mirth wrote:
Along with the points goon mentioned, the swing which was achieved largely through Labour being perceived as relatively soft on Brexit which is a policy favoured by centrists.

That's not clearly true at all—for instance as UKIP was routed at the snap election, a high proportion of its voters switched rails to Corbyn, precisely because he's perceived as a supporter of Brexit, unlike those in the centre ground of Labour.

Bit of a leap there. I think those guys were attracted more by the 'anti-establishment' image of Corbyn among other things, rather than voting for him because of his views on Brexit. There's someone in the office who I suspect of being a former UKIP supporter who couldn't and still can't stand Corbyn precisely because of his views on immigration etc.

I also think you need to look at how both parties have significantly shifted their stance on Brexit since the election to see that they're now courting the remain vote.

Qwiss

Mirth wrote:
Anyway, given the latest development around the Irish border there could well be another election next year so we'll soon find out.

The DUP are going to go nuts. Can the Tories afford to buy them off again?

goon

Apparently the Tories backed out of the deal after Arlene cracked the whip 😆

What a mess.

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