There is certainly form on FIFA, and the game isn't random at all. When in form I execute moves faster, thus opening up the opposition time and again. When low on confidence I become labored, take extra touches, try passes that are not on and so forth. It makes my defensive game worse too because I lose the ball more often in poor positions.
IMO the only real lottery in FIFA is from crosses and on corners. Crosses are ridiculously hard to defend, and corners too. At the same time, when I am on form I hardly concede corners and I am able to allow very few crosses.